Biden Expects Russia to ‘Move In’ on Ukraine, Warns Putin Again
- Sanctions response will be a ‘disaster’ for Russia, Biden says
- ‘Minor incursion’ might prompt different response, Biden says
President Joe Biden said he thinks Vladimir Putin will “move in” on Ukraine after amassing more than 100,000 troops on the nation’s border, although he suggested a full-scale invasion may not be in the Russian leader’s plans.
“I’m not so sure he has, is certain, about what he’s going to do,” Biden said at a news conference Wednesday marking his first year in office. “My guess is he will move in, he has to do something.”
Pressed on whether that means he has determined Putin is definitely going to attack, Biden said “that decision is completely, totally, solely Putin’s decision,” later adding “I don’t know whether he’s decided if he wants to do that or not.”
Biden said the U.S. and its European allies are united on making sure Russia would face “severe economic consequences” if Putin attacks, though he signaled that something less than a full-blown invasion might prompt disagreements.
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“I think what you’re going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades,” Biden said. “And it depends on what it does. It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion and we end up having to fight about what to do and not do.”
If Putin chooses to continue or ramp up cyber attacks on Ukraine, Biden said, “we can respond the same way, with cyber.”
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While top U.S. officials have stepped up their warnings about Putin’s possible intentions -- and Russian officials continue to say they don’t plan to invade -- the remarks by Biden were the starkest yet about the crisis on the border. He said a major attack would prompt a devastating economic response.
“If they actually do what they’re capable of doing it is going to be a disaster for Russia,” Pressed on whether sanctions are an effective tool against Putin, Biden said “he’s never seen sanctions like the ones I’ve promised will be imposed if he moves.”
NATO’s ‘Differences’
But Biden acknowledged it would be crucial, and potentially difficult, to keep NATO united on the response to any attack on Ukraine. “That’s what I’m spending a lot of time doing,” Biden said. “And there are differences in NATO as to what countries are willing to do, depending on what happens, the degree to which they’re able to go.”
Those remarks come amid signs that European nations aren’t on the same page when it comes to the package of sanctions that would hit Moscow following an attack.
Read more: Europe Sidesteps Specifics on Russia Sanctions Despite War Fears
Some European governments have expressed anxiety that hitting Russia hard could damage their own economies, or perhaps spur Putin to cut off essential gas supplies to them. And because the bulk of any European Union-wide response would have to be agreed to by all 27 member states, several governments are keen to avoid a group-wide debate for now, fearing it would advertise potential differences.
In Kyiv on Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said diplomacy is still the best path out of the current crisis. Previewing his planned meeting Friday in Geneva with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Blinken said, “We need to see where we are and see if there remain opportunities to pursue the diplomacy and pursue the dialog.”
— With assistance by Josh Wingrove, and Jenny Leonar
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