What If Russia Wins Its War on Ukraine?

 

Your Evening Briefing: What If Russia Wins Its War on Ukraine?

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Mourners attend the funeral of fallen Ukrainian military commander Dmytro Kotsiubaylo at St. Michael’s Cathedral in Kyiv, Ukraine, in March. Tens of thousands of people have died in Russia’s attempt to seize control of its neighbor while the fighting has driven more than a third of Ukraine’s 41 million people from their homes.

Photographer: Andrew Kravchenko/Bloomberg

By David Rovella

20. Dezember 2023 at 00:33 MEZ

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An impasse over aid from the US and Europe has Ukraine’s allies contemplating something they’ve refused to imagine since the earliest days of Russia’s invasion: that Vladimir Putin may win. With more than $110 billion in assistance mired in political disputes in Washington and Brussels, how long Kyiv will be able to hold back Russian forces and defend Ukraine’s cities, power plants and ports against missile attacks is increasingly in question. And the longer term threat posed to NATO nations by a Kremlin victory is stark.

If Ukraine Fell, Russia’s Threat to Eastern Europe Would Grow

Russia’s military threat, pre-war and in the case of a full victory

Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project

Note: Locations of units and air defense extent in the scenario of a full Russian victory are notional based on assessments of current and projected Russian capabilities and intentions. Combat units shown are maneuver units only, not artillery or other support units.

Speaking at a press conference in Kyiv on Tuesday, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy denied that Ukraine is starting to lose the war, pointing to advances his forces have made and the support he’s received. But in the US, with Republicans blocking $61 billion of support for next year, the Pentagon is warning that money for weapons for Ukraine will run out by Dec. 30. President Joe Biden, long a stalwart in his support for an embattled country which has seen tens of thousands of its people killed by Russian soldiers, mercenaries and convicts, last week pledged to back Ukraine for “as long as we can.” It used to be “as long as it takes.”