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Ecuador - Comments on Noboa's win - April 2025

Is this the start of a new pro-incumbent bias in elections?

BOZ APR 15

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It would not have been too surprising if Daniel Noboa had won by twelve points in the first round. The pro-Noboa polls for that round had suggested it was possible. After a tight result in the first round (suggesting those pro-Noboa polls were very wrong), it is incredibly surprising that the president won reelection by a twelve point margin in the second round. Noboa won far more votes than expected given Gonzalez’s first round results, the fact the polls very slightly favored Gonzalez, and the fact the third place candidate endorsed Gonzalez. Noboa gained 1.3 million votes from his first round totals. Gonzalez gained only about 160,000.

Via Wikipedia

The result is mathematically improbable in terms of how the votes split after the first round and in terms of the result not matching the second round polls. And yet, that improbable victory is not enough to claim fraud. Election monitors have not indicated any serious irregularities. It was as free and fair an election as should be expected.

Noboa seems to have pulled off an incredible win via political organization and campaigning as well as some missteps (more obvious in hindsight) by RC and Gonzalez. The power of incumbency certainly helped, but not in a way that is illegal or different from how any incumbent anywhere uses their advantages. People can criticize conditions around the margins (as is true in many elections), but Noboa won this.

So what happened? The most obvious answer is the default analysis:

1) Voters rejected Rafael Correa and

2) Voters endorsed Noboa’s approach on security.

I’m open to other potential analyses on this election, but they would require evidence.

Those two explanations are probably both correct, but they lightly compete with each other in terms of what they mean for Noboa’s next term. If this is more about a rejection of Correa, then Noboa’s mandate is weaker and his approval will decline in the coming months. If the votes were to support Noboa’s security agenda, his approval rating will be more likely to hold up.

I’d like to rely on polling to understand which explanation is stronger, but the polls did so poorly in this election that it’s hard to trust them. Why wasn’t Noboa’s victory picked up in the polls? Even the most pro-Noboa polls that were hesitantly and quietly shared by polling firms that missed big in the first round didn’t predict a win this big for Noboa. Everyone adjusted their models after the first round and didn’t pick up what appears to be a major shift in the electorate in recent weeks. I’m not personally managing any polling right now, but I think pollsters need to rethink their models and methodologies from scratch in several countries, including Ecuador.

For Noboa, this victory is a mandate. Voters just endorsed him to continue his security and economic policies. He’s the sort of politician who will run with this mandate and try to make the most of it (though, as Steven Dudley writes, it’s not clear that he has much of a plan beyond tough rhetoric). Further, this is a great result for markets. Markets like Noboa, and they will be happy with a decisive victory.

Luisa Gonzalez refused to immediately recognise the result and called for a recount (This Simpsons recount video is always useful for moments like these). It’s possible that she changes her mind in a few days. But if that rejection of the election remains, it sets up a political clash in the future with a portion of the polarized electorate and a large portion of Congress rejecting Noboa’s legitimacy.

1. Will Ecuador’s indigenous groups also reject the election results? The party leadership had endorsed Gonzalez, but indigenous voters appear to have strongly voted against the Correa-backed candidate. They control a key voting bloc in the Congress. I think after some disputes they’ll find a way to work with Noboa, but it’s not clear at the moment.
2. Can Noboa win over some RC members of Congress to his side? Correa’s control over his party is not complete. If Noboa can win just a few votes from the other side, he can pass legislation.

What does it mean for the anti-incumbent environment?

No incumbent party has won a close (within ten points) presidential election since 2018. It’s amazing that Noboa’s victory somehow doesn’t technically break that trend because his margin of victory was so large. That said, it seems to break that pattern in spirit. This was a close election until the end, and the first round was a virtual tie.

One question I have been asking in recent months is whether the conditions/chaos being brought by Trump in the United States impact the anti-incumbent environment in Latin America and globally. I had two theories, one that helped Noboa and one that hurt Noboa’s odds. Of the two theories, I had leaned towards the one suggesting it would hurt Noboa’s chances at reelection and help the opposition. Clearly I was wrong. It’s good to have a new data point. The Canadian election will be a further datapoint. It’s possible (though we still have very limited data) that Trump’s policies in the US reverse the anti-incumbent wave elsewhere.

I’ll try to write more about this in the coming weeks. This question no longer matters for Ecuador but could impact Honduras, Chile, Colombia, and Brazil in the coming 18 month