The Biden administration still supports Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido, despite the European Union downgrading his status as the country’s interim president.
The U.S. views elections last December that led to Guaido’s ouster as leader of the National Assembly as illegitimate and recognizes the legal authority of the assembly that was elected in 2015, and thus Guaido’s role as interim president, according to a National Security Council spokesperson who requested anonymity to describe the Biden administration’s thinking.
Earlier this year, the EU officially downgraded its view of Guaido’s status after three years of failed efforts to oust President Nicolas Maduro. The European body labeled him a “privileged interlocutor” one month after the Dec. 6 elections, even though the contest was deemed not credible by the EU and other international organizations. Maduro later formed a legislature full of loyalists in a bid to consolidate power.
The administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump championed Guaido in its push to topple the Maduro government. The U.S. and more than 50 countries recognized Guaido as interim leader in early 2019, when he took control of the previous National Assembly controlled by Maduro’s opponents.
His claim was based on a supposed vacancy in the nation’s presidency after elections in 2018 that were denounced as fradulent.
ech shares led a rout in U.S. stocks while the selloff in global bondsdeepened, with the benchmark Treasury yield spiking to a one-year high and debt from the U.K. to Australia coming under pressure. The Nasdaq 100 tumbled 3.6%, the most since October, as investors rotated away from pandemic-era winners toward companies poised to benefit from an end to lockdowns. About 10 stocks fell for every one that gained on the S&P 500. Companies popular with the day-trader crowd surged once again, with GameStop doubling at one point before ending 19% higher. Here is your markets wrap. —David E. Rovella
Economic activity in December rose 0.9% m/m; -2.2% y/y
Slowest month of growth since massive contraction last April
Argentina’s economic recovery sputtered out in December, tallying its worst month since the start of the pandemic.
Economic growth month-over-month slowed to a crawl of 0.9% growth, down from 1.4% in November. After a short-lived bounce-back from the pandemic in May, the country still tallied an annual descent of 2.2% from December 2019, according to government data published Wednesday.
The decline has been driven largely by hotels and restaurants, which recorded a dramatic 47% drop on an annual basis -- by far the hardest hit sector. The slide was further pushed by transportation and social activities, with both sectors registering double-digit drops year-over-year.
Argentina likely contracted 10.9% for all of last year, according to a central bank survey, which would be in line with the country’s worst annual drop on record. Economists surveyed by the central bank expect South America’s second largest economy to grow 5.5% this year, though on a quarterly basis activity is projected to be below 1% in the first half of this year
Vor rund einem Jahr trat der Berliner Mietendeckel in Kraft, der tief in die Eigentumsrechte der Haus- und Wohnungsbesitzer eingreift. Der Staat überlässt die Preisfindung nicht mehr dem Markt, sondern steuert nach Quotenvorgaben. Eine Entscheidung darüber, ob dieser Mietendeckel auch legal ist, wird das Bundesverfassungsgericht wahrscheinlich im zweiten Quartal 2021 fällen.
Eine Studie des Portals „ImmoScout24“ hat jetzt die Folgen des Mietendeckels untersucht: Demnach ist der Quadratmeterpreis für Wohnungen, die unter den Mietendeckel fallen, innerhalb eines Jahres von 10,46 Euro pro Quadratmeter auf 9,64 Euro gefallen – ein Rückgang von 7,8 Prozent.
Die Folge: Während das Angebot an Mietwohnungen in anderen deutschen Städten steigt, ist es in Berlin eingebrochen. Auf „ImmoScout24“ ging die Anzahl der neu inserierten Bestandswohnungen um 30 Prozent zurück. Insgesamt fiel das Angebot an Mietwohnungen um 19 Prozent. Thomas Schroeter, der Geschäftsführer der Immobilien-Suchmaschine, resümiert:
Die reale Nachfragesituation in Berlin ist weiterhin dramatisch. Die anhaltend hohe Zahl der Immobiliensuchenden konkurriert um ein deutlich reduziertes Angebot. “
Berliner Mietendeckel: Weniger Wohnungen
Entwicklung des Angebots an Mietwohnungen in deutschen Metropolen*, in Prozent
Die Verknappung des Wohnraums ist jedoch nicht die einzige Nebenwirkung des Mietendeckels. Laut einer Umfrage des Landesverbands Berlin unter privaten Unternehmen der Wohnungs- und Immobilienwirtschaft will ein Großteil der Vermieter die Investitionen zurückschrauben, da am Ende jeder Investition eine deutlich geschmälerte Rendite wartet. 61 Prozent der Vermieter wollen bei der Sanierung sparen, 72 Prozent haben vor, geplante Investitionen zu stoppen oder ganz aufzugeben.
Berliner Mietendeckel: Investitionsbremse
Geplante Einsparungen der privaten Wohnungsunternehmen als Reaktion auf den Mietendeckel, in Prozent
Fazit: Der Mietendeckel schädigt Vermieter und Mieter in gleicher Weise. Die einen kriegen kein Geld, die anderen keine Wohnung. Das kann man gerecht oder auch töricht nennen
Schon wieder eineschlechte Nachrichtaus dem HauseCommerzbank: Das Management des Unternehmens rechnet laut einem Bericht der „Welt am Sonntag” mit1,7 Millionen weniger Kundenbis zum Jahr 2024. Grund hierfür sei dieUmstrukturierungdes Konzerns. Rund 300 Millionen Euro an Erträgen würden der Bank durch den zum Teilgewollten Kundenschwund verloren gehen. Kreditwachstum, mehr Geschäfte mit Unternehmens- und Geschäftskunden sowie wohlhabenden Privatkunden sollen die Verluste ausgleichen.
Fazit: Die neue Commerzbank ist ein Hoffnungswert, dessen Fundament aussieht wie eine Wanderdüne.
Implied volatility posted its biggest weekly gain this year
Inflation data in Brazil, Mexico to offer clues on policy path
Rising U.S. Treasury yields are starting to concentrate minds in the world of emerging markets.
Developing-nation local-currency notes had their worst week since September in the five days through Friday, while dollar debt declined by the most since January as surging inflation expectations fueled a rout in Treasuries. The selloff in the world’s largest bond market also sent implied volatility for currencies and stocks to the biggest weekly jump of 2021.
All eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress this week. The central bank chief is set to echo remarks that policy makers are fully committed to supporting the economy. Investors will also look for any sign that he’s troubled by steeper long-term borrowing costs after the real rates on long bonds rose above zero for the first time since June.
“We will still need to see the Fed vastly expanding its QE purchases, as the market simply can’t absorb the net U.S. Treasury issuance later this year without much higher real yields, which would eventually be toxic for asset markets,” John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank in Hellerup, Denmark, wrote in a report. “Rising yields don’t even necessarily have to trigger any notable meltdown in risk sentiment as long as the market is comfortable that real interest rates will continue to decline.”
A Bloomberg study in January found all developing-world currencies typically sell off when yields jump at a rate greater than about 25 basis points per month. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen by 27 basis points this month through Friday.
Oil will also keep traders on their toes, with Saudi Arabia and Russiadifferingonce again on their output strategy heading into an OPEC+ meeting. The Mexican peso, Colombian peso and Russian ruble were among the worst performers in emerging markets as Brent crude retreated on Friday.
“Our optimistic emerging-market currency outlook is not without risks of setbacks along the way,” Ehsan Khoman, the Dubai-based head of emerging-market research in Europe, the Middle East and Africa at MUFG Bank. “By and large, we believe relative cyclical outperformance and attractive yieldson offercontinue to favor stronger EM currencies as Covid-19 ebbs.”
South Korea and Hungary
The Bank of Korea will probably stand pat by unanimous consensus on Thursday
The most interesting aspect of the meeting could be any signals on government debt purchases. Lawmakers areplanningto draw up another supplementary budget in the coming weeks -- with the potential for additional debt issuance likely to put upward pressure on yields
The BOK would opt to use ad-hoc debt purchases to counter any bond market volatility rather than shift to a full-fledged quantitative-easing program, according toBloomberg Economics
Korean 10-year bond yields rose around 9 basis points last week, mirroring the moves in U.S. yields
Hungary will probably keep its base rate at 0.6% on Tuesday, with the forint among the worst performers in emerging markets this month
The central bank had developed a reputation for being one of Europe’s most dovish before the coronavirus pandemic. Now, it’s among the strictest, pursuing caution to prevent volatility in financial markets and inflation
Policy Clues
In Brazil, swap rates traders will watch a mid-February reading of consumer price inflation on Wednesday, which probably accelerated on an annual basis, underscoring bets on a rate hike in March
Investors will also monitor the congressional debate surrounding the 2021 budget and prospects for another round ofcash handouts
January current-account data on Wednesday and unemployment and primary budget balance figures on Friday could offer further signs of the pandemic’s impact
Mexico’s mid-month inflation data, scheduled for Wednesday, will be scrutinized after January consumer pricestoppedexpectations
Policy makers will release the minutes from their February meeting on Thursday, which investors will monitor for clues on the central bank’s next steps after aunanimousdecision to cut rates by 25 basis points
On the same day, the country will release a reading of December economic activity and January unemployment
Malaysian January CPI on Wednesday is expected to remain innegative territory
The January trade balance is likely to remain in strong surplus in data to be released on Friday
Ringgit was stock-still last week -- buffeted between opposing forces of strong dollar and robustoil pricesas a net exporter of energy
South African Budget
South Africa’s Finance Minister Tito Mboweni will present the 2021-2022 budget on Wednesday
Mboweni must convince investors he has a credible plan to support an economy that contracted the most in nine decades last year, while also curbing growth in government debt
The market also wants clarity on plans for debt-ridden state-owned companies such as Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd. Nedbank Group Ltd. is leading discussions torestructurethe South African power utility’s debt load, according to people familiar with the talks
The rand had its worst weekly performance since early January in the five days through Friday
Data and Events
Sudan’s central bank said Sunday it was implementing aunified exchange ratesystem, part of broader measures aimed at reviving its struggling economy
South Korea’s 20-day export numbers for February are due on Monday. The steep rise in10-day exportsmay have been a bunching in sales occurring before Lunar New Year and working day effects, so anyone expecting a similarly big jump is likely to be disappointed
The nation’s export numbers often contain early clues on global production. For instance, a Bloomberg study covering 2015-19, shows a 23% correlation between misses versus consensus for these figures and misses from the subsequently available U.S. ISM data
The won was flat last week, despite the rise in the U.S. dollar, perhaps insulated by past poor performance against its behavioral drivers
Thailand’s trade numbers are due on Tuesday. The balance should be just above zero, with a steep decline in imports responsible for keeping the numbers in the black
January’s current-account figures may show a third straight deficit in data to be released on Thursday
Thai baht depreciated 0.4% last week, a little more than the global average
Taiwan’s January export orders might show another sizable increase on Wednesday, with consensus about 46% year-over-year
January industrial production is likely to tell a similar story of rapid recovery on Thursday -- with consensus at about 19% year-over-year
Another vast current-account number for the fourth quarter will be released on Friday
Taiwan’s dollar was one of the top gainers in Asia last week
India’s fourth-quarter GDP due Friday is likely to show the first year-over-year expansion since the first three months of 2020
The Indian rupee was one of the strongest performers in Asia last week as inflows poured into local equity markets
China’s official February PMIs –- for both manufacturing and services are due on Feb. 28
The Chinese yuan was the third-weakest currency in Asia last week, although the stronger-than-expected fixing in yuan terms on Friday offered a glimmer ofhopefor bulls
A reading of Peru’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product, scheduled on Monday, may show a recovery from the lows seen amid the emergence of Covid-19 while lingering below levels from before the pandemic, Bloomberg Economics estimates.
Chile’s January copper production on Friday will be watched as the metal trades near decade highs, fueling a rally in the peso
A gauge of Argentina’s economic activity index may flag a slowdown in December after seven straight monthly gains, according to Bloomberg Economics
— With assistance by Tomoko Yamazaki, and Aline Oyamad
