Ukraine Is Getting More Complicated for Putin
Just a few weeks ago, the warnings ringing out from Washington, London and Brussels made it seem a Russian invasion of Ukraine was imminent. Now it’s not so clear.
Chalk it up to the show of unity among Kyiv’s Western allies, the growing clarity of sanctions, or even the mild winter that has left Ukraine’s black-soiled steppes a muddy quagmire instead of the frozen hard-pack good for a tank assault. The risks and potential costs for Russian President Vladimir Putin have risen.
In his first public comments on the crisis since December, Putin seemed to take a softer tone last night, suggesting a diplomatic solution could be reached even as he lambasted the U.S. and its allies for trying to “contain” Russia.
Key reading:
Russia has repeatedly insisted it’s not planning an invasion, and that it’s entitled to move its forces on its own territory wherever it likes.
But the 130,000 troops assembled near the border, based on the current U.S. assessment — and Putin’s belief that Ukraine is part of Russia’s backyard — suggest anything is still possible.
The West fears Putin could send his infantry and tanks across the border, potentially forming a land bridge to Crimea — which he snatched in 2014 — from Russia and the eastern part of Ukraine already controlled by Kremlin-armed separatists.
They could also move west to Odessa and its seaports and leave the country landlocked, or potentially strike south from Belarus to knock out the government in Kyiv.
Yet as Marc Champion reports from southern Ukraine, they would face stiff resistance, and occupying the nation of more than 40 million people almost twice the size of Germany may be nigh impossible.
Putin could opt for other measures — ranging from cyberattacks to hybrid incursions — to continue to exploit Ukraine’s vulnerabilities, roil European financial and energy markets and keep the West guessing. He’s a specialist at frozen conflicts in other ex-Soviet republics.
What’s important is that the answer to the question on everyone’s mind — what does Putin want? — may be shifting as he reassesses the world’s response. — Michael Winfrey
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And finally ... The opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics confused some foreign viewers because the teams didn't enter according to the English alphabetical order. Things will get much more complicated at the winter games in Beijing as the Chinese language doesn't have an alphabet. Isabella Steger explains here how the teams will march in.
— With assistance by Muneeza Naqvi, Karl Maier, and Anthony Halpi
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