Maxar Technologies captured satellite imagery of battle group deployments at the Pogonovo training area in Voronezh, Russia, on Jan. 19.

Maxar Technologies captured satellite imagery of battle group deployments at the Pogonovo training area in Voronezh, Russia, on Jan. 19. Photographer: Maxar Technologies via AP Photo

Where Military Forces Are Assembling Around Russia and Ukraine

Published: 28. Januar 2022 | Updated: 2. Februar 2022

The U.S. is sending about 1,700 more troops to Poland, as well as moving 1,000 troops based in Germany to Romania, in an effort to send a stronger military message to Russia over Ukraine by bolstering allies in Eastern Europe, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said at a briefing Wednesday. The Pentagon confirmed that Russia has more than 100,000 troops near the border with Ukraine. It warned that a three-pronged move into Ukraine might take place from Southern Russia, Crimea and Belarus.

Russia denies any plans to invade Ukraine, saying the forces are on routine maneuvers. But it has warned Kyiv against making any military move against the separatist regions Moscow backs in the Donbas area. Russia also accused the U.S. and NATO allies of stoking tensions with naval exercises in the Black Sea. Ukraine denies it plans an assault.

Note: Locations in Belarus include drills scheduled Feb 10–20.
Sources: Bloomberg; Janes; Belarus Defense Ministry; Rochan Consulting; NATO; U.S. Department of Defense

Calling the alliance a threat, Russia has demanded NATO accept no more new members in Europe’s east, deploy no offensive weapons that it sees as threatening and pull back its infrastructure to where it was in 1997, before the former Soviet allies and republics joined.

The U.S. and NATO have rejected those demands, saying the bloc is defensive, offering instead talks on limiting missile deployments and military maneuvers in the region.

The Soviet Union’s withdrawal from its eastern European satellite states after the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall ended decades of Cold War military confrontation in Europe. NATO expanded in response to appeals from former Warsaw Pact members to be admitted into the military alliance and ensure Europe-wide security.

Note: In 1955, West Germany joined NATO and East Germany the Warsaw Pact; reunited Germany became a NATO member in 1990. Czechoslovakia, the predecessor of Czech Republic and Slovakia, was a Warsaw Pact member.
Source: NATO

A NATO summit in April 2008 declared that membership is open to Ukraine and Georgia once they meet the necessary conditions, despite objections from Russian President Vladimir Putin. While neither has moved much closer to joining the alliance since then, Putin’s demands that they never do so is a main source of tension.

The U.S. is marshalling allies to threaten painful economic sanctions on Russia if it does invade Ukraine, but there is disagreement on how severe those measures should be. NATO members have also stepped up supplies of defensive weapons to Ukraine, whose army is much smaller and weaker than Russia’s. Though the U.S. has said it wouldn’t send troops to defend Ukraine, which isn’t in NATO, the Biden administration put as many as 8,500 soldiers on heightened alert for deployment to bolster alliance members in Eastern Europe if needed.

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