End to oil sanctions?: the possible agreement between the US and Venezuela
Since Saturday, March 5, there has been speculation about the rapprochement between Venezuela and the United States. That day there was a meeting in Caracas with US representatives who were received by Nicolás Maduro, Jorge Rodríguez and Cilia Flores, according to the president. The intention ? Everything points to the substitution of Russian oil for Venezuelan oil.
Also read: Maduro returns to the international scene due to the war in Ukraine
The United States wants to isolate Russia and stop the purchase of crude from that country in the West, one of the closest substitutes is Venezuela, which clearly would have its conditions but at the same time needs to increase production, operability and export, which would help mitigate the economic crisis and give stability to the country.
However, Maduro has said that all the versions about that meeting “are pure lies, pure speculation” because “the issues that were discussed, were discussed,” said the president, highlighting, yes, that they agreed on certain issues and that they motivated to “keep going”.
Also read: Will Russia’s attack on Ukraine change the Colombia-Venezuela relationship?
But if from Caracas there is no clarity about what they talked about, from Washington things are no different.
The Biden administration only confirmed the meeting, assuring that energy issues were discussed and that the talks will continue. This has unleashed discomfort in some US radical sectors. Democratic Senator Bob Menendez said that “The freedom of Venezuelans and Ukrainians is worth more than a few barrels of oil”.
Nicolás Maduro will have to make a firm decision as to whether or not he remains on the side of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
For Caracas, the lifting of the sanctions imposed since 2017 by the US would be not only an economic relief but also a political triumph over its “enemy”. But on the other hand the relationship with Russia may weaken.
At the level of speech, the Venezuelan president has taken a turn. In the first days of the invasion of Ukraine, he said that he maintained his full support for Russia. “We can experience a Third World War with brutal impacts on the economy” .
Nicolás Maduro (l.), leader of the Venezuelan regime, and Vladimir Putin, president of Russia, speak in the Kremlin.
He also called on Monday night for “the factors involved around Ukraine to encourage it to seek peace and abandon the positions it has held in the past” and added that measures had to be taken to protect the economy. A different speech.
Opposition and Venezuelan regime will resume talks in Mexico
The Venezuelan president assured that the country should be an example in terms of dialogue, “If we ask for dialogue for the rest of the world, we have to reactivate our dialogue,” Maduro said, alleging that they were going to “format” the process to make it more inclusive.
The Venezuelan government delegation announced the first two partial agreements with the opposition after the second phase of negotiations in Mexico City
Although some indicate that there was no progress in this first Caracas-Washington meeting, it seems that at least in discourse, chavismo begins to change, because they even talk about establishing political guarantees for the coming processes. “You have to give all the guarantees,” Maduro said.
How likely is it to reach an agreement for the US to lift the embargo on Venezuelan crude?
An agreement for the United States to lift the embargo on Venezuelan crude that has been in force since 2019 would serve the government of Nicolás Maduro in the face of the risk posed to Caracas by sanctions on Russia for the invasion of Ukraine, expert Francisco Monaldi estimated on Monday.
Monaldi, director of the Latin American Energy Program at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy in Texas, said that the first thing needed for the United States to be able to buy Venezuelan oil again “has to be a change in sanctions in place. Something narrow could be done, like giving (U.S. oil company) Chevron or some Western companies a license to export some cargoes to the United States. They could specifically authorize (Venezuelan state oil company) PDVSA to be paid for those cargoes to that the Venezuelan government authorize it in turn”.
Venezuela produces 750,000/800,000 barrels of oil per day and the most it could produce in the next six months is about 950,000 barrels per day, perhaps even a million.
From the analyst’s point of view, these figures are very low compared to Russia, “which produces 11 million barrels per day and exports 7 million.” “In other words, Venezuela would not help to keep the price of oil from rising at all. If the United States suspends the purchase of Russian oil, Venezuela could very partially help solve the problem of some US refineries in the Gulf of Mexico that now use Russian oil. “.
In Venezuela there are only three relevant Western oil companies: Chevron, (the Italian) Eni and (the Spanish) Repsol, the latter two fundamentally dedicated to gas. “Those three companies would benefit greatly if there were some mechanism with which they could collect, because they have been accumulating gigantic liabilities with PDVSA,” Monaldi added.
In relation to conflict in Ukrainewhich has triggered the price of oil, can affect Venezuela, according to Monaldi, for two reasons:
“First, because the way in which Venezuela evades sanctions is through Russian banks. Then, when Russian banks are sanctioned, that can hinder the flow of money to Venezuela. Second, because if the Russians cannot export to the United States, they will trying to export to China, the most important non-Western market in the world and where they already sell more than a million barrels. And that can be very bad for the Venezuelan crude that is placed in China,” he explains.
Hence, Nicolás Maduro is interested in reaching an agreement with the United States and that he is not so calm, despite the fact that the price of oil is so high since that does not benefit him in the long run.
The Colombian-Venezuelan border maintains a latency due to criminal groups and military forces in the area.
Ministry of Defence
Tensions on the Colombian border with Venezuela
The Strategic Operational Command of the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (Ceofanb) assured that in their deployment along the Colombian border, they continue to dismantle camps established by Colombian terrorist groups.
In one of the last messages published on Twitter, Ceofanb announced that in Apure state they managed to destroy aexplosives manufacturing center improvised with more than 1000 kg of gunpowder and other chemicals”.
ANA RODRIGUEZ BRAZON
WEATHER CORRESPONDENT
CARACAS
*With information from AFP
More news
Keine Kommentare:
Kommentar veröffentlichen